Nigeria's richest person loses $10.6 billion in 250 days amid weak naira, failed merger, and investor sell-off

Omokolade Ajayi -
Key Points
  • Aliko Dangote’s fortune has declined by $10.6 billion, dropping his net worth from $23.3 billion to $12.7 billion in 250 days.
  • The Nigerian naira's devaluation and declining stock prices of Dangote Cement have significantly impacted his wealth, now ranking him 190th globally.
  • Dangote’s $20 billion oil refinery, now operational, could revitalize his wealth and is expected to meet Nigeria's entire fuel needs, with a potential listing.

Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest person and the world's richest Black billionaire at the start of 2024, has experienced a staggering $10.6 billion drop in his fortune over the past 250 days, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Once valued at $23.3 billion on Jan. 30, Dangote’s net worth now stands at $12.7 billion, marking a sharp decline that has reshaped his spot among the world's billionaires.

Bloomberg now ranks the 67-year-old industrialist as the world’s 190th richest individual, with American tech billionaire David Steward close behind at 191st with a net worth of $12.6 billion.

Steward, with a net worth of $12.6 billion, now trails Dangote, who ranks 190th on Bloomberg's real-time billionaire index. In contrast, Forbes currently lists Steward ahead of Dangote as the world’s richest Black person, underscoring the varying metrics used by different wealth trackers.

Naira devaluation and market sell-offs pressure Dangote's empire

The decline in Dangote's wealth is linked to several factors, primarily the devaluation of the Nigerian naira and the sustained sell-off of shares in Dangote Cement Plc, the crown jewel of his business empire.

Dangote Cement, where he holds an 86 percent stake, has seen its market capitalization slump from over $11 billion on Jan. 30 to less than $5 billion. As a result, the value of his stake in the company, once worth over $10 billion, now stands at $4.3 billion.

The naira’s depreciation has compounded these losses. The Nigerian currency has weakened by more than 45 percent since Jan. 30, eroding the value of Dangote's holdings and reflecting the broader economic challenges Nigeria faces.

Currency volatility and tight liquidity have kept foreign investors on the sidelines, awaiting clearer signs of fiscal reform and increased oil production under the government of President Bola Tinubu.

Merger talks collapse, stocks plummet further

Dangote’s other publicly traded businesses—Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc and Nascon Allied Industries Plc—have also suffered substantial share price declines. Over the past 250 days, Dangote Sugar's stock has tumbled by 62.9 percent, while Nascon has shed 59.7 percent.

Both companies have faced investor disappointment following lackluster financial performance in the first half of 2024. Dangote Sugar posted a loss exceeding $86 million during the period, while Nascon's H1 2024 results—which initially showed promise with Q1 revenues surpassing $17 million—underwhelmed in subsequent quarters.

The shelving of a proposed merger between Dangote Sugar, Nascon, and Dangote Rice to form a food conglomerate further exacerbated market concerns.

The merger, initially hailed as a transformative move to strengthen Dangote’s position in Nigeria’s consumer goods sector, faltered, prompting a sell-off in the affected companies.

Dangote Cement’s fall and Dangote Fertilizer’s rise

While the decline in Dangote Cement’s value has been a significant blow to Dangote’s wealth, another asset in his portfolio has quietly overtaken it.

Dangote Fertilizer, his closely held fertilizer manufacturing plant with a capacity of 2.8 million tonnes of urea annually, is valued at $5.15 billion. According to a KPMG analysis, this valuation surpasses the $4.3 billion value of Dangote’s stake in his cement business.

The shift in value highlights the importance of Dangote's diversification beyond cement. However, the overall hit to his portfolio has left his fortune severely depleted, even as Bloomberg and Forbes estimate his current net worth at $12.7 billion and $11.3 billion, respectively.

Refinery renaissance could revive Dangote's wealth

Amid these challenges, there is a potential silver lining. Dangote’s $20 billion oil refinery, which became fully operational in Sept. 2024, is now delivering petroleum products to Nigeria’s state-owned oil company, NNPC.

With the refinery now operating at full capacity, capable of processing 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, it is expected to meet 100 percent of Nigeria’s domestic fuel needs, dramatically reducing the country’s reliance on imports.

The refinery’s potential listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), alongside the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), could boost Dangote’s wealth significantly.

In May 2024, Devakumar Edwin, an executive at Dangote Refinery, confirmed plans for an LSE listing, stating, “We would have to take it to London Stock Exchange (LSE) but also list in NGX.”

If the listing materializes, it could propel Dangote back into the ranks of the world’s top 100 billionaires, a group currently populated by individuals with fortunes exceeding $20 billion.