IEA forecasts Aliko Dangote’s refinery to fuel decade-long surge in African oil demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lauded Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote and his Dangote Oil Refinery as a pivotal force poised to stimulate oil demand growth over the next decade.

According to the IEA, this transformation is set to benefit African nations that currently rely heavily on imported refined energy products.

In the recently released October 2023 World Energy Outlook report, the IEA emphasized the significant role of Dangote Refinery, with a staggering daily capacity of 650,000 barrels, in reshaping the African energy landscape.

The report stated, “Africa becomes a net oil importer in the mid-2030s. Many African countries rely on imports of refined products, although a new 650,000 barrels per day refinery in Nigeria helps meet incremental oil product demand growth in the next decade.”

Furthermore, the IEA disclosed that, while demand for oil and gas in Africa continues to rise, new oil and gas projects face shifting dynamics due to global trends, which carry implications for current and future producers.

Africa’s current crude oil production stands at 7 million barrels per day, with approximately 40 percent of it being exported. However, oil production is projected to decline, with limited new oil discoveries coming online that will not outpace declines from producing fields.

Dangote Oil Refinery Marks a Milestone for Aliko Dangote

In September, reports had indicated that Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest person, was nearing a significant milestone as the Dangote Oil Refinery, hailed as Africa’s largest integrated petrochemical complex, prepared to receive its first crude oil cargo in October.

Devakumar Edwin, the executive director of Dangote Group, confirmed this development during a press conference. He noted that the refinery’s initial crude oil importation was a temporary measure, and from November onwards, it would source its crude supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL).

Edwin also outlined plans for a gradual increase in petrol production, with the refinery expected to produce a remarkable 650,000 barrels per day by Nov. 30.

The refinery had faced a setback when it missed its initial production deadline in August. However, an official statement by Devakumar Edwin assured that the Dangote Oil Refinery is now gearing up for refining operations to commence in October 2023.

The impact of the Dangote Oil Refinery on Nigeria’s economy is anticipated to be substantial. It is expected to reduce the nation’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products, ultimately elevating Nigeria’s status as a regional energy hub.